A New Russian Heartland?

Professor Michael Bradshaw Department of Geography The University of Leicester Abstract Aims and Objectives Non-technical summary Planned outputs Initial Project Proposal End of Project Report Working Papers Conference Presentations Bibliography EGE Special Issue Mapping Russia

Abstract

This project is part of the ESRC’s New Security Challenges Programme, and ran from October 2003 to September 2004. It assessed the impact of Russia’s recent economic and demographic crisis upon the effective occupation of its national territory and considers the implications for Russia’s political and economic cohesion. Following the work of the Geographer David Hooson, six criteria were used to assess the dynamics and effective national territory: scale of contribution to the national economy, rate of population growth, relative importance of accessible resources, economic specialisation, regionalism and ethnic considerations. All the relevant information was stored and analysed in a geographic information system and the results presented in graphic and cartographic format. The project identified new security challenges posed to the Russian State by changes in its effective national territory and will be of interest to other academics, policy-makers and businesses interested in Russia’s future place in the world.

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Aims and objectives

1. The primary aim of this project us to assess the impact of Russia’s recent economic and demographic crises upon the effective occupation of its national territory.

2. A secondary aim is to use that analysis to identify actual and potential threats to Russia’s internal cohesion and external relations.

These aims are realised through the achievement of two more specific objectives.

1. To construct a GIS on Russia’s regions that contains information on the six criteria identified by Hooson (1964) as the factors determining the changing geography Russia’s ‘effective national territory’. To include a benchmark evaluation of the situation at the end of the Soviet period 1989-91, the dynamics of change during the 1990s and analysis of the current situation in 2002-2004 in terms of effective national territory.

2. To use the GIS to construct profiles on each region (containing both quantitative and qualitative information) that enables an assessment of the national situation and the identification of individual regions and groups of regions within Russia that pose a threat to Russia’s internal cohesion and that have the potential to influence its international relations.

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Non-technical summary

This project assesses the impact of Russia’s recent economic and demographic crises upon the effective occupation of its national territory. This analysis is then used to identify actual and potential threats to Russia’s internal cohesion and external relations. The concept of ‘effective national territory’ is taken from a classic work by the Geographer David Hooson (1966) in his book ‘A New Soviet Heartland’ and is defined as: “that major part of the country which consistently produces a surplus in relation to its population and which, by implication is therefore supporting the country in a real sense’. Hooson charted how the policies of the Soviet Union promoted an eastward extension of this zone into a region that he called the Volga-Baykal. The development of Siberia and the Far East continued in the 1970s and 1980s, such that at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union its effective national territory within the Russian Federation had spread further east and north. The collapse of the Soviet system, and with it the end of the Cold War and the transformation to a market-type economy, has changed the logic determining contemporary Russia’s economic and political geography. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence, as well as political rhetoric, to suggest that Russia is now experiencing a contraction of its ‘effective national territory’, a retreat of population and economy southwards and westwards back into the historical European core of the Russian state.

This project will conduct a systematic re-assessment of Russia’s effective national territory. A Geographical Information System (in simple terms a relational database linked to a map) will be used to hold data on the criteria used by Hooson in his original analysis. These criteria have been reinterpreted to reflect the current situation and involve an evaluation of six issues: scale of contribution to the national economy, rate of population growth, and relative importance of accessible resources, economic specialization, regionalism, and ethnic considerations. The GIS will contain quantitative (statistical) and qualitative (text, photographs and graphs) information on each region. The GIS will enable Russia-wide analysis of particular issues, such changing contribution to the national economy, analysis of the relationship between variables, such as contribution to the national economy and regionalism, and finally, the creation of a political and economic profile for each region. Analysis will also be conducted at the scale on Russia’s seven Presidential Districts or particular borders regions. The results of this analysis enable an evaluation of the dynamics of Russia’s effective national territory. At the national scale the issue of Russia’s economic and political cohesion is addressed. At the regional scale, particular problem regions or groups of regions are identified that pose a threat to Russia’s internal cohesion or that influence its international relations.

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Planned outputs

The findings of the project are of academic interest and a special session at RGS-IBG Meetings in Glasgow in August 2004 (this will include papers from two Russian colleagues who are working on the project) and a theme issue of Eurasian Geography and Economics are planned. In addition, a strategy has been devised to insure the rapid dissemination of the project findings through maximising the use of electronic publishing and the World Wide Web.

1. A project web site: this will describe the project, house initial working papers and the results of the mapping components of the project (a series of maps as graphics files that can be downloaded).

2. A briefing document within Royal Institute of International Affairs’ Russia and Eurasia Programme that will be hosted on the project web site with links on the RIIA Programme site and other related sites.

3. An end of project seminar at the RIIA’s London base, Chatham House, this will involve those who worked directly on the project (plus two US specialists).

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Initial Project Proposal

The initial full project proposal is available as a pdf file (158 KB).

End of Project Report

The final project report submitted to ESRC is available as a pdf file (1101 KB)

Working Papers

1) Regional Identity and Territorial Integrity in Russia

Abstract:
This paper seeks to explore regionalism in Russia as an alternative to ethnic or national identity, and from this basis to examine the extent to which regional identities may threaten Russia’s territorial integrity. The concept of regional identity is examined, as it relates to territory and legitimacy, and particularly in relation to ethnic and civic identities in the Russian context and in light of the Soviet legacy. Alternative arenas for the appearance of regional identity are discussed, as are actual examples of newly emergent or historically engendered regional identities within Russia today, at spatial scales ranging from the intra-regional to the sub-regional. Throughout, the paper seeks to relate these regional identities to the contemporary context and to highlight possible future developments or scenarios which may impact on their content or consolidation, and thereby to anticipate the potential for regional identities to establish as legitimate alternative arenas of political self-determination, in contrast to the Russian state.

2) There are republics and then there are republics: Who matters?

Abstract:
Russia’s federal system exhibits pronounced asymmetries of a formal and informal nature, both between groups of regions (either ethnically or territorially designated) and within these groups. This paper focuses on the asymmetry which pertains between the 21 ethnic republics at the apex of the institutional federal hierarchy in Russia, and seeks to determine which of these republics are the most important and why. A number of arenas of asymmetry are considered ranging from the economic and political to the personal and ethno-cultural. The changing dynamics of Russian asymmetry are also considered, in particular by a comparison of the Yeltsin and Putin periods, as characterised broadly by decentralising and recentralising trends respectively. The importance of maintaining state stability through regional stability is argued here to have had a crucial impact. This goal played a significant role in determining which arenas of asymmetry held most sway, and in combination with the changes in the domestic and international contexts, has had crucial influence in determining which of the republics matter the most.

3) The Regional Consequences of Russia's Demographic Crisis

Abstract:
Russia's demographic problems, as they impact on the health of Russia's population, her economy, society and security, are well known and much discussed; yet, despite Russia's unique demographic conditions, analysis in the post-Soviet years has sought, more often than not, to fit Russia's demographic heritage to the well-established demographic patterns, which are characteristic of most developed nations. This paper argues that an over-reliance on liberal demographic transition theory has tended to focus too heavily on national-level universalisable trends and as such has obscured (or ignored) regional variation and divergence in Russian demography. This paper seeks in some way to redress this imbalance, to assess Russia's demographic health in regional rather than national terms, and to consider the consequences for Russia's regional economies and societies. Not only do different demographic features occur in different regions, but also the impact of any factors will be influenced by the context within which they unfold. Regional differences, which are manifest in social, political, cultural, economic and security dimensions, all condition whether a region can and must adapt to the demographic processes underway, as well as the consequences of such processes for any one region and the cohesion of the state as a whole.

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Conference Presentations

'A New Russian Heartland' (5.96MB) and the paper was presented to the Ed. A. Hewett Forum on Former Soviet Affairs at The Brooking Instituation in Washington DC on Monday 15th March 2004. A shorter version was also presented at AAG Meeting in Philadelphia.

RIIA Presentation (8MB), this is the final project seminar presentation at Chatham House on 10th September 2004. Also presented was Geographical Dimensions of Russia's Demographic Crisis (0.98MB) by Tim Heleniak.

'Where's Russia's Market? Regional Aspects of Russia's Demography' (4.2MB). Paper presented at a Roundtable on Russia's Demographic Crisis at the BASEES Conference, Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge, UK, on 2nd April 2005.

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Bibliography

An extensive bibliography listing publications related to the project and questions of regionalism, federalism and social and economic transformation in Russia, is available for download. The bibliography includes articles and publications providing both broad multi-regional analysis, and region specific case studies. In addition a selection of texts relating to Mackinder's Heartland theory and Russia have been included.

The complete bibliography is available in three formats for download as required; as a simple PDF file listing all works (right click on the link and choose the option 'Save Target As..' before opening the file, New Russian Heartland V4.pdf), as an Endnote library file (Endnote New Russian Heartland V4.enl) and as a Procite library file (Procite New Russian Heartland V4.pdt). The latter two can be searched and sorted as required. A short guide is also provided detailing use of keywords to search the bibliographies (Bibliography Help Notes.pdf). It should be noted however that the Procite version is less comprehensive and certain data may be included in rather odd fields. This is due to conversion problems from Endnote and particularly relates to the Year/Date fields. Use of Endnote is therefore recommended as far as possible.

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Eurasian Geography and Economics Special Issue

Issue 2, Volume 46 of Eurasian Geography and Economics is dedicated to the Heartland project. Below you can download the papers from that issue free of charge. To find out more about the journal visit: http://www.bellpub.com/psge/index.html

Bradshaw, M.J. and Prendergrast, J. (2005) ‘The Russian Heartland Revisited: An Assessment of Russia's Transformation', Eurasian Geography and Economics , 46(2): 83-122. Download PDF (12.2 MB)

Dienes, L. (2005) ‘Observations on the Russian Heartland', Eurasian Geography and Economics , 46(2): 156-163. Download PDF (144 KB)

Treyvish, A. (2005) ‘A New Russian Heartland: The Demographic and Economic Dimension', Eurasian Geography and Economics , 46(2): 123-155. Download PDF (2.57 MB)

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Mapping Russia

This section contains downloadable maps relating to a variety of criteria, from the demographic to the environmental, which have resulted from the GIS analysis in the course of the project, at spatial scales from the raion to the federal level. This section necessarily contains only a sample of the possible mapping outcomes, and many more maps have been produced than can be displayed here. Nonetheless this section aims to represent as comprehensively as possible, the image of the Russian state which has emerged through the course of the project. It is hoped that an interactive mapping section will be developed and added in the near future which will enable interested parties to select and adjust mapping components, scales and criteria as required. Please maximise your browser window to view these maps fully.

General Maps
Demographic Maps
Economic Maps
Electoral Maps
Environmental Maps

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